# Which Advanced Metric Should Bettors Use: KenPom or Sagarin?

Lets get one important bit of advice from the way right there is no magic formula for winning all your school basketball wagers. If you bet at any regularity, you are likely to eliminate some of the time.
But history indicates you could improve your odds of winning by using the forecasts systems available online.
Sagarin and kenPom are equally math-based ranks systems, which give a hierarchy for many 353 Division I basketball teams and also forecast the margin of success for each match.
The KenPom rankings are influential when it comes to gambling on college basketball. From the words of founder Ken Pomeroy,[t]he purpose of the system would be to show how strong a team could be whether it played tonight, either independent of injuries or emotional aspects. Without going too far down the rabbit hole, his position system incorporates statistics like shooting percentage, margin of victory, and strength of program, finally calculating offensive, defensive, and generalperformance numbers for all teams at Division I. Higher-ranked teams are predicted to conquer lower-ranked teams on a neutral court. But the part of the website — that you can efficiently access without a subscription — additionally variables in home-court benefit, therefore KenPom will predict a lower-ranked group will win, depending on where the game is played.
In its days, KenPom created a windfall for basketball bettors. At predicting the way the game would turn out, it had been more accurate than the sportsbooks and particular bettors captured on. Of course, it was not long before the sportsbooks recognized this and began using KenPom, themselves, even when placing their odds.
Its uncommon to see that a point spread that deviates in the KenPom predictions by over a point or two,?? unless?? theres a substantial injury or suspension at play. More on that later.
The Sagarin rankings aim to do the identical factor as the KenPom rankings, but use another formula, one which doesnt (seem to) variable in stats like shooting percentage (although the algorithm is proprietary and, thus, not completely translucent ).
The bottom of the Sagarin-rankings webpage (linked to above) lists the Division I basketball games for this day along with three distinct ranges,??branded COMBO, ELO, and BLUE, which are predicated on three somewhat different calculations.
UPDATE: The Sagarin Ratings have experienced some changes recently. All the Sagarin predictions used as of the 2018-19 season will be theRating predictions, thats the new variant of theCOMBO predictions.
Many times, both the Sagarin and KenPom predictions are aligned, but on active college basketball times, bettors could always find one or two games which have substantially different results that were predicted. When theres a significant gap between the KenPom spread and the disperse that is Sagarin, sportsbooks have a tendency to side with KenPom, however frequently shade their lines a little in another direction.
For instance, if Miami hosted Florida State on Jan. 7, 2018, KenPom needed a predicted spread of Miami -3.5, Sagarin needed a COMBO spread of Miami -0.08, along with the lineup at Bovada closed at Miami -2.5. (The game ended in an 80-74 Miami win/cover.)
We saw something similar for your Arizona State in Utah game on exactly the same day. KenPomd ASU -2; Sagarin had ASU -5.4; and the spread wound up being ASU -3.0. (The match finished in an 80-77 push)
In a relatively small (but growing) sample size, our experience is that the KenPom positions are somewhat more accurate in these scenarios. We are currently tracking (largely ) power-conference games from the 2018 season in which Sagarin and KenPom differ on the predicted outcome.
The are supplied at the bottom of this page. In brief, the results were as follows:
On all games tracked,?? KenPoms predicted result was closer to the actual outcome than Sagarin. As a percent…
When the actual point spread fell between the Sagarin and KenPom forecasts, KenPom was accurate on 35 of 62 games.?? As a percent…
But when the point spread was either lower or higher than Sagarin forecasts and also the KenPom, the true spread was closer to the final results than the two metrics. As a percentage…
One restriction of KenPom and Sagarin is they do not, generally, account for harms. The calculations to get his group arent amended, After a star player goes down. KenPom and Sagarin both assume that the group tomorrow, carrying the ground will be the same as the group that took the floor last week and a.
That is not bad news for bettors. While sportsbooks are extremely good at staying up-to-date with trauma news and turning it into their chances they miss things from time to time, and theyll not (immediately) have empirical evidence that they can use to correct the spread. They, like bettors, will have to guess the lack of a superstar player will affect his team, and they are sometimes not great at this.
From the first game of this 2017-18 SEC conference schedule, afterward no. 5 Texas A&M has been traveling to Alabama to confront a 9-3 Crimson Tide team. The Aggies had lately played some games that were closer-than-expected and had been struck hard by the injury bug. Finally starting to get a little fitter, they had been small 1.5-point street favorites heading into Alabama. That disperse matched up with all the lineup triumph.
16 or so hours before the match, word came down the major scorer DJ Hogg wouldnt suit up, together with scorer Admon Gilder. It is uncertain if the spread was set before news of this Hogg accident, but its apparent you may still get Alabama as a 1.5-point house underdog for a while after the information came out.
The point was adjusted to most onlookers Alabama, to a pickem game that and overvalued the decimated Aggies. (I personally put a \$50 wager about the Tide and laughed all the way to your 79-57 Alabama win.)
Another noteworthy example comes in the 2017-18 Notre Dame team. Sportsbooks initially shifted the spreads manner too far towards the competitions of Notre Dame, predicting the apocalypse for the Irish, when the Irish dropped leading scorer Bonzie Colson at 2017. In their first game without Colson (against NC State), the KenPom forecast of ND -12 was slashed in half an hour, yet Notre Dame romped to some 30-point win.
When they went to Syracuse second time out, the KenPom line of ND -1 turned to some 6.5-point disperse in favor of the Orange. The Irish coated with ease, winning 51-49 straight-up. Sportsbooks had no idea what the team went to look like with no celebrity and wound up overreacting. There was good reason to believe that the Irish could be substantially worse since Colson wasnt only their leading scorer (with a wide margin) but also their leading rebounder and just real interior existence.
There was reason to believe the Irish would be okay because??Mike Bray teams are pretty much?? always?? alright.
Bettors wont get to capitalize on situations such as these daily. But if you pay attention and apply the metrics available, you might be able to reap the rewards. Teams Twitter accounts are a fantastic means to keep track of injury news, as are match previews on blogs. National sites like ESPN and CBS Sports do not have the funds to pay all 353 teams closely.
Below is the set of results we tracked when comparing the truth of both KenPom and also Sagarin versus the actual point-spread at Bovada along with the final outcomes.