The Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series (MENCS) heads to Sonoma Raceway for its first street race of the 2019 season. In an added twist, this will be the first time since 1997 the series races around the complete 2.52-mile design, which comprises the”Carousel” section, rather than this 1.99 mile layout used the previous two decades.
Sonoma is a really technical street course slower than its longtime counterpart on the Cup schedule, Watkins Glen.
NASCAR Props Challenge Picks for Sunday’s Toyota/Save Mart 350 at Sonoma
Read today When gambling this race, an important note: Don’t overvalue street course performance. All my best performing statistical models show that overall street course performance is not a factor that is predictive that is substantial.
Rather, monitor record at Sonoma far outweighs performance across all the road courses (like the Charlotte Roval that was conducted for the first time in last season’s playoffs). Other factors in my models include both brief and long-run speed in practice, and year-to-date functionality across all races.
One other major factor that isn’t predictive of finishing winning or position: starting position. Since 2005, eight of the 14 winners have started 10th or worse, involving two drivers winning despite starting from the 30s.
On the flip side, just two drivers have won from the front row (both starting second), and just four drivers beginning inside the top five have won. If novels overreact to qualifying, this is a chance to jump some worth from elite motorists staring mid-pack, or fade subpar Sonoma drivers starting toward the front.
Bearing that in mind, let’s look at the top futures bets for Sunday’s race, for example some very surprising odds for the driver who sits atop my model.
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